A forum to discuss anything and everything that occurs in the Boston Sports World

Friday, February 25, 2005

So Long Ty!

Well, its final. Ty Law has been released by the 2004 World Champion New England Patriots. I can't say I am surprised. Ty had a massive $12 million cap number for 2005 and there was no way he could be brought back without a restructured contract. Ty has never proven to be that accomodating so it seemed unlikely that was going to happen.

This news has been coming for months. Ever since Ty went down in mid-season with a broken foot and the Pats kept winning, people speculated Ty would be cast adrift. Shortly after Law was injured, the Pats patchwork secondary took some hits, but the Law-less secondary gradually imporved and was more then satisfactory by the time the Super Bowl rolled aorund. This did not bode well for Ty's future in New England. Hey, the Pats won without Law and there is no way the Pats were going to take a $12 million hit for a guy who was proven to be replaceable.

I got to say I will miss Law. While he isn't the most cuddly guy in the world, he was a tough guy and huge big game player. Whether it was the three picks against Indy in the 2003 AFC Championship or the pick and run against the Rams in the Super Bowl, Ty always seemed around the ball in big games. Plus, Law was always a sure-handed tackler so I never had to worry that number 24 would miss a tackle that would go for six. And even though he grabbed too much and drew some dumb flags, Law was a huge producer, especially during this recent championship run.

So where do the Pats go from here? I suspect Ty Poole will be following Law out the door and this will leave the Pats with Asante Samuel, Randall Gay and little else at corner. The Pats won with these guys this year and so its hard to claim its a glaring weakness, but I suspect that the Pats will take steps to strengthen and deepen this spot in the off-season. The Pats, at this point, are in need or a corner and a couple of middle linebackers. By releasing Law, the Pats will have money available to address some of these needs through free agency rather then solely through the draft. Moreover, it frees up some money for the Pats to accomplish their number one priority - get Tom Brady signed to a long-term deal!

Its MIller Time

The news out of Fort Myers a year ago was far from uplifting, but what a difference a year makes. Last March, Sox fans were bemoaning the fact that Trot's back was acting up, Nomar had frayed his ankle and Billy Mueller was nursing a sore knee. This year, we are hearing reports that Trot feels great, Matt Mantei is throwing gas and Wade Miller is way ahead of schedule. I like the reversal of fortune, even if it is only February 25th.

It was reported today that Miller was playing long toss at 180 feet for the second consecutive day. Wade is trying to build arm strength in advance off throwing off the mound and things appear to be going very well. Miller is now expected to toe the rubber next week. It is probably premature to get too excited, but Miller seems to be on a much accelerated schedule. Who knows if this guy is going to be back to his 2003-self by opening day, but at least their is room for hope. If that Miller is available come early April, the Sox will be back in the Arms race.

Tuesday, February 22, 2005

Can the Red Sox boost their win total by becoming more efficient?

Rob Neyer of ESPN penned an interesting piece for ESPN Insider yesterday where he compared how efficiently Boston and New York used their run differential in 2005. Basically the premis is this: you can reasonably predict a team's wins and losses by knowing its overall run differential. But that was not the case last year when Boston's run differential was much greater then New York's yet the Red Sox finished three back of the Yanks in the American League East.

Here are the numbers: The Sox outscored their opponents 949-769 last year while New York's totals were 897-808. Neyer then filters the numbers through his magic sifter and says that based on run differential, the 2005 Yanks look like a 92 game winner while the Sox look like a 106 win team. The moral to this story is that the Yanks were much more efficient with their production last year. The Yanks tended to win a great deal of close games, while the Sox were prone to winning a lot of blowouts and guilty of losing a lot of close games.

So what does this mean for the year ahead? I think the Yankess cannot possibly hope to win as many comebacks as they won last year, but perhaps they won't have to. With a much better staff, the Yankee run differential should improve as Johnson and Pavano weigh down the latter half of the run differential equation. I don't think the Yankees can possibly be as efficient as they were last year, but that doesn't mean they won't win at least as many games. The Sox on the other hand can look at last year's numbers with some optimism. If Matt Mantei can bring some stability to the eighth inning and the defense is sound, the Sox efficiency should rise. Thus, if Boston can generally maintain last season's differential, the Sox should be able to parley greater efficiency into more wins in 05. I am not sure it will be enough to pass the Yankees, but I beleive that the Sox can approach the 100 game plateau.

Monday, February 21, 2005

Turnabout is Fair Play and Long Overdue

Is it just me or has the city of New York become obsessed with the Boston Red Sox over the past few months? In just the past ten days, the New York airwaves and tabloids are just brimming with news and analysis of every word that comes out of the Boston Red Sox spring training facility in Fort Meyers Florida. Hey, sox fans have always been obsessesed with the Yankess but we are in the midst of seeing a reversal of historic proportions.

Dan Shaughnessy had a nice column on this subject in Saturday's globe (http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2005/02/19/they_have_sox_on_the_brain/), but I think it only scratched the surface of what is going on in Yankeeland. Dancing Dan's column correctly pointed out that the New York tabloids are covering the Sox as if they are one of New York's own. Each has a beat writer based in Fort Myers and each is there to catch and report every nuanced comment that may concern the Yankees. The only subjects that get more attention in the New York Post then the Sox are the two Michaels: Jackson and Lohan. I didn't think it was possible, but the Post is possibly more committed to seeing the Sox lose then they were to seeing that other Bostonian lose this past November.

While Dan did a nice piece, I think it only told half the story. Its true that the local scribes in New York have "sox on the brain," but this obsession pales in comparison to the legions of obnoxious Yankee fans who are only now coming to grips with last year's debacle. They are an angry lot who cannot believe that they will never again be able to break out the old 1918 chant. Case in point, I was at a bar the other night and a Yankee fan I know came up to me and without saying hello, just started railing at Trot Nixon. He was furious at Trot Nixon for standing up and saying what every player in major league player believes: Alex Rodriguez is an arrogant and self-involved guy whose teams tend to fail. His friend then jumped in and started hacking away at the Sox for their inability to handle sucess with dignity and class. This would never happen in the aftermath of a Yankee championship I was told. This may or may not be true, but is it really worth discussing? There was a huge college basketball upset brewing right in front of our eyes and yet all these guys wanted to talk about were some fairly tame comments from Trot Nixon. If this is any indication of the obsession that exists within Yankeedom, I can't wait to see the reaction of Yankee fans when Kevin Millar slips up and refers to the Yankee third baseman as GAYROD.

The same theme was heard all over the New York airwaves during the past week. Granted, its a slow period for sports, but that does not explain all the Sox-related calls that made it onto the call-in shows. Its February, but all anyone wants to talk about are the Red Sox and a few innocuous comments that have managed to escape confienment in Fort Myers. In a perfect world, the Sox should have kept their comments to themselves. I don't mind a few players taking AROD and Giambi to task, but enough is enough. Nonetheless, it doesn't merit all the attention its getting. However, the only reason it is getting so much attention is that Yankee fans and their apologists in the local media won't let this story die.

And why is this the case? Because Yankee fans are now obsessed with the Red Sox and what they won last October. Its not just that the Sox won last year. Its how they won that still peeeves Yankee fans. And I think Yankee fans are only now coming to grips with the fact that they lost something last October that can never be reclaimed. Yankee fans were always insufferable, but becasue they always had the upper hand in this rivalry, at least they were slightly complacent. But this complacency vanished last October when Johnny Damon clocked that Kevin Brown pitch into the rightfield seats of Game 7. At that point, Yankee fans lost their 1918 chip and they are now an angry lot. The masses want it back and they are now obsessed with its recovery. They are like Gollum in the Lord of the Rings. They seek "my precious" since it gives them the power to settle all bar room disputes in their favor. They long for those days when possesion of the chip made them feel superior to those from the North. What they do not understand is that the chip - the chip to control all other chips - was destoryed last year within the House that Ruth Built. Its gone and it ain't coming back!

Mantei Speaks Out As Grizzled Veteran

Five bucks to the first guy who can identify the author of the following rant:" You've got to have a clubhouse where everybody gets along and really wants to battle for each other and win. It might be what [the Yankees] are lacking. There are a lot of big egos, a lot of big guys in that clubhouse. Everybody is here for the same purpose, to play for each other. They're not here to play for themselves.'' If you guessed Kevin Millar, you just swung and missed. How bout Jason Varitek? Nope, strike two. Hmmmm. How about Curt Schilling? Nope, strike three!

The answer turns out to be Matt Mantei - an off-season signee who offered these poignant words after only his third day as a member of the Boston Red Sox. Sorry if I missed something, but was Matt out there last October shutting down the Yankees? Did Mantei come in to relieve Foulke in game five against the Yankees? Was he available as the Cards were getting frisky in Game One of the series? I don't seem to recall Matt Mantei being a part of last year's magical run but to hear Matt tell it, you would think he has been in Boston for five years.

Sorry Matt, its nothing personnel, but you haven't been in Boston long enough to start reciting the Millar Doctrine of Clubhouse Unity. You weren't attatched to the team last year and three days of Spring Training hardly qualifies you as an expert on the Boston Red Sox clubhouse. Mantei speaking of the Boston clubhouse is a bit like a replacement joining up with the 101st Airborne on June 15, 1944 and talking about the division's jump on D-Day.

Matt Mantei could be a very important member of the Boston Red Sox in 2005. At one point in his career, Matt could bring it like very few others in baseball. And although Mantei has been slowed by injuries in recent seasons, early reports suggest he is healthy and ready to post eighth inning doughnuts for the Sox. If the Mantei experiment works out and he earns his stripes in October, Matt can speak all he wants. But until that time, Mantei should keep his mouth shut. If anyone must speak, let it be those veterans who own 2004 world championship rings.

Thursday, February 17, 2005

Trouble for Teddy?

Its being reported this morning that New England Patriot inside backer Teddy Bruschi checked into a Boston Hospital last night suffering from stroke-like symptoms. Initial reports suggest that Bruschi was suffering from a severe headache, some paralysis and blurred vision. The team put out a statement saying Bruschi is in good condition, although he will undergo some additional testing today.

This doesn't sound too good to me. Knee injuries are bad, but they pale in comparison to neurological irregularities. ACLs can be reconstructed but I don't recall many stroke victims getting back on the field. How can you call out the plays when you can't speak? Perhaps Teddy just ate some bad shell fish, but it seems more likely that ten years of violence may be beginnning to take its toll on the heart and soul of the Pats defense. If this turns out to be serious, and I think it may, the Pats have some big questions at middle linebacker. Roman Pfeffier is a candidate for retirement and Teddy Johnson isn't getting any younger. The depth chart says Klecko and Chatham are next in line but lets be serious - neither is ready to step in for Teddy. With Bruschi now a possible question mark, the Pats list of off-season priorities has certainly changed.

Bruschi has been a warrior since joining the Pats in 1996 and there is no disputing his contributions to the recent success of this organization. He is the comsumate team player and who other then Willie McGinnest has made more "big plays" for this defense over the past two years. As a fan, I am hoping we will see Teddy playing football next year, but if this is indeed the end of the road, I will miss number 54.

Wednesday, February 16, 2005

Greenwell was robbed

In the past week, pundits around the country have wasted plenty of breathe debating whether Baseball's record books need to be doctored or augmented to account for accusations of steroid abuse. To date, almost all of this discussion has centered on Home Runs. With Jose Canseco now claiming that he injected Mark McGwire in the ass with anabolic steroids, some believe that McGwire's yearly and cumulative home run totals need to be disgraced with a scarlet asterisk. Aside from McGwire, the home run exploits of other sluggers such as Barry Bonds and Rafael Palmerio are also being reconsidered. I think most of this discussion is a bit premature since very little steroid abuse has ever been confirmed beyond a reasonable doubt.

But what about all that steroid abuse that has been admitted? For god's sake. Jose Canseco, Jason Giambi and the late Ken Caminitti have all admitted that they danced with the devil. I find it difficult to alter the books on guys like Bonds unless we get admissions or convictions, but the same cannot be said for the aforementioned triumverate. These guys have admitted to the crime and I believe they should, at the very least, have their awards revoked.

Each of these men have MVP awards. Canseco won his in 1988 over Red Sox outfielder Mike Greenwell. Caminitti's came in 1996 over Mike Piazza and Giambi's was won in 2000 over Frank Thomas. If it were up to me, MLB would strip these men of their awards and the runners-up would be presented with the hardware. We do this in amateur sports so why not extend the practice to baseball? Olympic medalists have been stripped of medals after testing positive so why not strip these clowns based on their own testimony.

The fallout from such a shakeup would be enormous. Can you believe that Gator could now demand being be introduced as "1988 American League Most Valuable Player Mike Greenwell." That just does not sound right given Gator's career, but people forget what a great year Greenwell had in 1988. That summer, he hit .325 , drove in 119 runs and had an on-base percentage of .419 for a division winner. That is a big year, although not nearly big enough to top Canseco's 40-40 year on the pennant winning Athletics. Canseco finished 150 points ahead of Greenwell in the voting that year but I think the standard 200 point deduction for steroid abuse should be applied in this instance. And lets be clear on one important point- this would not be a backdoor award. Afterall, Greenwell's 1988 was a whole lot more impressive then that year's National League winner Kirk Gibson.

Mike Piazza and Frank Thomas would be the other beneficiaries if MLB decided to reverse this injustice and in the case of Thomas, the impact would be significant. The Big Hurt would now have three MVP awards and that would cement his enshrinement in Cooperstown. Piazza is probably headed to the Hall of Fame as well, but adding an MVP to his resume would help solidify his candidacy. Its safe to say an MVP would do absolutely nothing for Greenwell's resume, although it would free him to emblazon MVP in big red letters all over his racing cars if he so desired.

Tuesday, February 15, 2005

Trot to Arod: "You're no Jeter"

So Trot Nixon and Arod are now at odds. Yesterday, Nixon unleashed a blistering salvo at Arod, saying the third baseman is not the "yankee type." In other words, Nixon believes Arod is a prissy loser. I believe much of this stems from Game 6 of the ALCS where Arod tried slapping the ball of of Bronson Arroyo's glove. Nixon specifically said, "when people ask me about the Yankees, I tell them about (Derek) Jeter and Bernie Williams and (Jorge) Posada. I don't tell them about Rodriguez. ... He can't stand up to Jeter in my book or Bernie Williams or Posada." Jeter is one thing, but Bernie Williams? Wow, those are fighting words. Hey, I hate Arod as much as the next guy, but cmon Trot. Comparing Gay Rod with Bernie is a little bit out of bounds.

With bad blood between these two, I am really looking forward to game two of the upcoming season (Nixon won't play opening day against the lefty Randy Johnson). Specifically, I want to see what happens after Nixon rips one to right center and walks into third while Bernie rolls the ball back into Womack. Lets see what Arod does when Nixon asks, "hey Alex where's your purse?"

Monday, February 14, 2005

Money is no Object!

Patriot-haters around the country have got to be getting a bit frustrated. What in the world is it going to take to break this organization apart? The NFL tried implementing a salary cap and that didn't work. And now it is becoming clear that money and good old-fashioned greed won't work either. Why do I say that? Because at least three teams tried using boatloads of cash to lure key staff members away from Foxboro this week and all three were brutaly rebuffed. This just doesn't happen in sports. Everyone knows that.

Well, everybody it seems, except people who get paid by Bob Kraft. For one reason or another, New England players and staff members never got the memo saying, "thou shalt uproot your family and jump at any job offering so long as it pays more then you will make in the foreseeable future." This memo is tantamount to the NFL's Ten Commandmants. Its almost as if Commisioner Paul Tagliabue went to the top of a mountain, spoke with God, and returned to his New York City offices with a set of new operating guidelines for the league.

While most of the league has bought into these guidelines, the Patriots have not, as the Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins and Seattle Seshawks found out this week. In the first instance, Miami and Cleveland each tried convincing New England secondary coach Eric Mangini to become their defensive coordiantor. Mangini said no thanks. Despite better financial offers, Mangini refused to cross Bill Belicheck and therefore he will be calling the defensive plays in New England next year. Mangs could have made more elsewhere, but like one Kansas schoolgirl, he decided there was no place like home. The same thing happened again this weekend when New England personnel director Scott Pioli rebuffed an offer from Seattle that would have placed him in charge of the entire Seahawk football operation. In doing so, Pioli reportedly turned down a five year package that would pay him fifteen million dollars. At three million dollars per year, Seattle's offer would have paid Pioli three times what he currently makes. When is the last time an NFL executive turned down an offer that would have tripled his salary? I can't answer that question, but I am guessing the list of instances is probably pretty short.

Mangs and Pioli are not the only ones in the organization who seem to be motivated by desires other then money. You want some examples. Well, Teddy Bruschi negotiated a contract extension last fall that was significantly below market value, perhaps by a factor of two. Matt Light also negotiated an extension last year that falls well below what a solid left tackle in the NFL pulls down every year. You want more examples - Ted Johnson has re-negotiated his contract several times over the past few years in order to help out the Patriots with their cap issues. The same goes for Troy Brown.

Although some New Englanders, like Damian Woody and Ted Washington. left for "greener" pastures, it is becoming clear that some sort of magnet effect exists in New England. Something is going on Foxboro that people enjoy and are in no hurry to forego. Maybe its Belicheck. Maybe its Kraft. Maybe its just that people don't want to leave a successful organization and chance ending up in a hopeless spot where wins occur at the same rate as solar eclipses. I don't really have all the answers, but I can spot a trend when I see it and this is a bonafide trend.

What does this mean for the rest of the league? Well, it certainly is not a positive. The NFL's principal instrument for ensuring the breakup of dynasties is its salary cap, but the Patriots appear to be fairly resistant to this form of Kryptonite. The organization has always made smart and forward-looking cap decisions and as a result, the Patriots never find themselves liquidating in the offseason. Sure, players do come and go, as Damian Woody did last year, but the Patriots have never had an offseason where there are four or five major cap casualties. This year will be no different. There will some minor defections, but for a Super Bowl champion, this team is coming back virtually intact.

Well, since the cap has failed to bring this team back to earth, the NFL's deep pockets tried to do the next best thing - pillage the organization of its brainpower. But this strategy appears to have failed as well, at least for the time being. This is a real problem for the league. It has shot its two arrows but its prey remains unscathed. Now, some people are hoping that this battle will finally be won when the Patriots are forced to pay Tom Brady what he so rightly deserves. This may end up proving true, but I am betting that Brady - like Brushci and Light and Mangs and Piloi - will not let his own greed endanger this organization. He will get paid, but like his brethren, Brady feels at home in New England and will stay even though a larger pot of gold lies over the horizon. That is the way things work in New England. Just ask Paul Allen and the rest of the Seattle Seahawk organization.

Saturday, February 12, 2005

Mangs Is Staying But What About Scott

This is a dark day for Patriot-haters throughout the land, including the likes of Mike Francesa and the New York Daily News' Gary Meyers. Much to their dismay, ESPN is now reporting that Patriots secondary coach Eric Mangini has spurned the offers of the Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns and has decided to become the Patriots new defensive coordinator. The 34 year whiz kid is generally considered to be a star in the making (at least up in New England and down in Miami) and his return should help soften the blow that was created when defensive coordiantor Romeo Crennel left to take the head coaching job in Cleveland. Mangs has been in the system for several years and therefore he should be able to step right in and run the Pats defense. This is a big blow for those like Francesa who were desperately hoping that Mangs would fly the coop and leave Belicheck with a decimated staff. Last week, Francesa couldn't open his mouth without saying that Belicheck was going to have an awfully hard time next year since its hard to "coach the coaches."' Well Mike, Coach Belicheck now has a guy who may not need much coaching. If Mangs work with the secondary this year is any indication, he will be just fine.

The one thing I'd like to point out that has to really burn Patriot haters is that Mangini reportedly took considerably less money to stay with the Pats. This is a bad sign for the rest of the league. Players such as Teddy Bruschi and Matt Light recently agreed to below market contract extensions in order to stay in New England and now coaches are doing the same thing. The salary cap has thus far not slowed down the Pats and now the hyper-inflation within the coaching ranks seems to fave failed as well.

Well, just as the Mangini fire has been extinguished, another fire may be kindling. And unfortuantely, this one is probably more dangerous. The Boston Globe reported this morning that the Seattle Seahawks have received permission to speak with Scott Pioli, the Pats czar over personnel ( http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2005/02/12/seahawks_seek_pioli/)
According to the Globe, Pioli has not agreed to even speak with the Hawks, but this could be a troubling development for Pats fans.

Pioli is one of the organization's pillars. He, along with Belicheck, are astute surveyors of talent and do a great job identifying players who fit into the teams regimented system. In recent years, Pioli has done an excellent job through both the draft and free agency of handing Belicheck the players he desires. Granted, Belicheck has played a key role in this process, but Pioli and his scouting department have certainly been important to this team's success.

You want some evidence to support this theory. Well how about taking a look at the 2003 NFL draft. Ten players were selected in that draft and four of them are starters including Eugene Wilson, Ty Warren, Asante Samuel and Dan Koppen. On top of that Bethel Johnson is the teams kick returner, Dan Klecko was a multi-dimensional contributor before breaking his leg and Tully Cain is a valued special teams player who someday may become a big contributor at outside linebacker. This was a historic draft and it was on Pioli's watch.

This is not the first time Pioli has been courted. The Browns for one were interested in bringing him in to run their football operations. He ultimately spurned that offer and said that he planned to stay with the Pats through the 2006 draft. It will now be interesting to see if Scott is a man of his words, especially since Paul Allen has the deep pockets necessary to make Pioli a very wealthy man in Seattle.

This is a potentialy a serious issue. Scott Pioli is quite simply a very key member of this organization's front office and his departure would hurt in a bad way. He and Belicheck are very complementary and there is no telling whether Coach Bill and Bob Kraft would be able to find a suitable replacement. And for those of you too young to remember, it wasnt pretty around here when the inmates were making personnel decisions. Chris Singleton, Ray Agnew, Eugene Chung, Hart Lee Dykes. Should I go on? And so on a day when Patriot haters saw their dreams dashed, news comes along that may provide them with some momentary comfort. I have the utmost confidence this issue will be discussed when Mister Francesa gets behind the mike for his Sunday chat. Because its Boston, he just can't himself.

Thursday, February 10, 2005

I DREAM OF MANGINI

The courtship of Eric Mangini will supposedly conclude sometime this afternoon. According to the this mornings's Boston Globe, Patriots secondary coach, Eric Mangini, has at least three offers to become a defensive coordinator and is poised to make his "best in show" selection. Along with the Pats, the highly sought after whiz kid has offfers from both Cleveland and Miami.

Let me preface this piece by saying I don't know Mangini from Adam and therefore I don't think I am the most qualified to say whether he is destined to be a great defensive coordinator. I know the Raiders had a crush on him last year, but the protege decided he wanted no part of that hell hole. So he decided to come back and saw his stock rise after he worked miracles with a injury devastated secondary. This is a guy who started the season assuming he had ten million dollar man Ty Law locking down one side of the field and capable vet Ty Poole manning the other corner. With two safeties and a nickel back coming back, Mangini probably thought he had a quiet year ahead. And then things went South and South in a hurry.

First, Poole went out with a bum knee. This loss was manageable. Poole had a great start in 03, but his play was spotty down the stretch and uninspiring in 04. Its never good to lose a capable vet at cornerback, but this was not a devastating blow. Hey, injuries are part of the game and losing Poole is hardly crippling. On the other hand, losing an all-pro corner is never a positive and that is exactly what happened on Halloween. When Law busted his foot in Pittsburgh, alarm bells went off all over New England. The initial reports were not too discouraging, but when ESPN reported that Monday that he was gone for six weeks, the Pats future didn't look to promising. With two games looming against good passing teams from Missouri, the AFC East was suddenly up for grabs.

But a funny thing happened on the way to mediocrity and I assume Eric Mangini played an important role. Rather then folding, the pats used a couple of band-aids to keep the secondary afloat. Asante Samuel took over one corner spot and undrafted rookie free agent Randall Gay was given a Berlitz class in how to play corner in the NFL. Undersized linebacker Don Davis was asked to play some safety, free safety Eugene Wilson got some reps at corner and wide receiver Troy Bown was brought across the line to play some nickel. All things considered, the results were nothing short of amazing.

Over the back half of the season, the Pats patchwork secondary, under Mangini's tutelage, bent, but only broke once. They gave up yards to St. Louis, KC and Cinci, but in each case, much of the yardage came after the games were decided. Morever, this secondary was able to slap zeros on Buffalo, Baltimore and Cleveland. Miami turned into a disaster late, but this group responded with a terrific game at the Meadowlands. All in all, Mangini's troops performed admrably given the difficult circumstances. In particular, Brown picked off three passes, Samuel proved he is more then just a nickel guy and both Samuel and Gay proved to be dependable tacklers. There were times where receievers caught balls in front of this pair, but it was rare to see one them miss a tackle in the defensive backfield.

The win over the Jets seemed to serve as a springboard for the Pats secondary. In the playoffs, Mangs set up a great gameplan against the Colts and his boys executed perfectly. The colts longest play that day was 18 yards and even that may have been overturned if it had been challenged. The Steelers didn't prove much more succesful the next week and it was a play by Safety Rodney Harrison that sealed that game. As for the Super Bowl, Mangs' young corners played very well early, althoguh they did get a bit conservative after Wilson left the game. Nonethelss, the eagles were only able to hit one big play and that was over Wilson's substitute Dexter Reid.

The conventional wisdom now is Mangini did a terrific job with his guys and he is now ready to call the defensive plays for some team in the NFL. The Browns hope it will be in Cleveland. And with former Pats defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel now heading up the brownies, there is speculation that Mangini will tag along. Miami is also playing in this poker game. New coach Nick Saban is supposedly enamored with Mangini and is ready to spend some of Wayne Huizinga's money to make Mangini a wealthy man. Many analysts and reporters think both the Cleveland and Miami bids are much higher then tight-fisted New England will be willing to pay so the assumption is that Mangini is a goner. However, I think its important to note that some of these analysts - like WFAN's Mike Francesa - are devout Patriot haters and are praying that Mangini leaves. Francesa's mantra over the past week is that the coaching issue in New England is a huge issue for Belicheck and the departure of Mangini would do nothing to silence the fat man of Long Island.

I would urge caution on such assumptions. According to the Globe's report, Mangini, who made $216,000 last year, turned down an offer last year from Oakland that approached seven figures. As such, I think it is safe to assume that money is not the only thing that motivates the young assistant. And so why did he turn it down? To come back to New England and bide his time until a better DC spot opened up? Are the spots in Cleveland or Miami much better then Oakland? Did he come back because he knew Crennel would get a head coaching job and he wanted to go along? I can't see that being the case. Whose to say Crennel was going to get a job? That was not assured and I don't see a guy making such an important career decision based on so much uncertaintly.

I think the most logical assumption is that Belicheck gave Mangini a nod and a wink: "If Romeo leaves, you get the keys to the car." Clearly Mangs will bolt if he is going to be passed over for the coordinators job - which is a possibility - but if the Patriots DC job is his, why wouldnt he stay? As coordinator, Mangs will get to run a loaded defense on a team that could go back to the Super Bowl. And I believe that if he stays, he is probably on the fast track to get his own team. So as long as the Pats really want Mangs and make him a credible offer, I think Eric Mangni will be standing on the sidelines calling plays for the Pats next year.

Wednesday, February 09, 2005

Pats on "Cycle" fot Three-Peat

Over the past week, far too much energy has been spent on discussing whether the 2001-04 Patriots are a dynasty and where this team ranks among the great teams in NFL history. This issue was front and center prior to the Super Bowl and is now being discussed on every sports talk show in America. On one side, Patriots fans are mounting a vigorous argument, stressing that this teams accomplishments in the salary cap era are simply astonishing. The team has won three championships in four years, two straight, won 21 in a row, had back to back 14-2 seasons, won nine post-season games in a row and has gone 57-14 since Mo Lewis caved in Drew Bledsoes chest cavity and Number 12 took over. "For gods sake, what do we have to do to get some respect," is the rallying cry of Pats fans around the country.

On the other hand, Pats critics, and there are plenty of them, were holding out hope that the Pats would lose the Super Bowl and this discussion would be a moot point. These prayers went unanswered and after Sunday night, the critics, many of whom live and work in the NYC-Bristol CT corridor, have reluctantly found Jesus, or in this case, Tom Brady. It now seems that the general consensus is that this Pats team is a dynasty, but one that couldn't compete with the Packers of the 60s, the Steelers of the 70's, the Niners of the 80's or the Cowboys of the early 90's. Much of this sentiment is being advanced by talking heads who played on those teams and whose objectiivty is a bit questionable. You hear me Michael and Terry? I don't necessarily agree with Mr Bradshaw or Mr Irvin, but I want to point out one thing that this team has going for it that none of those other teams can say. The Pats are still alive to add to their legacy while the resumes of those other organizations are cemented in stone.

What happens to this debate if the Pats continue this run? What happens if there is a three-peat, something that has NEVER happened in the Super Bowl era. What will Steeler defenders say at that point? They had a shot at a three-peat, but they went 10-4 in 1976 and ended up getting punked at Oakland in the AFC Championship. Steeler fans will argue that the black and gold lost to a terrific team and went in to that game undermanned after having been depleted by injury. Sorry, after what the Pats accomplished the past two years, injuries are no excuse. Bradshaw played. Ham played. Blount played. The Steelers just simply lost to a better team. Moreover, when the Steelers got an opportunity for a three-peat in 1980, they failed to even make the playoffs.

What about the Niners? Well, they got their chance to three-peat in 1990. They had a terrific season that year, but what happened with the three-peat on the line? They lost at home to an inferior Gaints team. If Roger Craig doesn't lay that ball on the ground, the Niners probably get their third in a row, but turnovers count the last time I checked. Moreover, am I the only one who remembers that the Niners were lucky in the first place to be going for a three-peat. People seem to forget the gift the Niners got from Lewis Billups in San Francisco's 1988 Super Bowl victory over the Bengals. If Billups holds on to that beach ball, the Niners lose and we aren't having this discussion.

And what happened when the Dynastic Cowboys were going for their triple play. Well, they came up against a very good and very angry San Francisco team on the road and lost 38-28. Steve Young was destined to win that game after coming up short the two previous years against the Cowboys. There was no shame in losing that game and the Cowboys did come back the next year to win a third title in four years. But that doesn't erase what happened on that day at Candlestick. They had their shot at history and they didnt get it done.

So that brings us back to New England. Unlike the aforementioned dynasties, the Pats still have a shot at a three-peat. They are bringing back a loaded squad and more importantly, they are right in the middle of their cycle. Before I move forward, I should probably describe my theory on cycles. It is my belief that great organizations have winning cycles. The cycles are premised upon a few years of foundation building and then a 4-6 years of success. Cycles are usually marked by a great coach and a terrific core group of players and they usually end when the coaches leave and the core ages. The Steelers cycle begins in 71 or 72, peaks from 74 to 79, and crashes in 1980. San Franciso is a bit of an anomaly because they had almost a 20 year cycle that begins in 1980. And while they had a terrific team in 1984, the peak of their cycle really begins in 1988 and wraps in 1994. The Cowboys cycle is much more finite: it begins in 1991, peaks from 92 through 95 and is over after Carolina mauled Dallas in a 1996 divisional playoff game.

I believe the Pats cycle began in 2001, but the peak did not start until 2003. Well how can that be - they won a championship in 2001? Lets be honest - the 2001 championship was a bit flookey and it was definetly ahead of schedule. Belicheck had come in the year before and I am confident he did not have a two year plan to win a championship and certainly not one that was led by a second year quarterback who had thrown four passes as a rookie. As a result, I do not think 2001 was the beginning of the Pats peak years. 2001 was phenomenal for Pats fans like myself but it happened while Belicheck was still building his foundation. Well, the foundation was finalized by 2003 and I believe that marks the begining of the Pats peak.

Some will argue that cycles don't really exist anymore under the restrictions of the salary cap, but I think New England has proven so adept at handling the cap that my cycle theory holds. When you throw in Belicheck's abilities, Brady's youth and a fairly young core, I feel that this team is going to be a leading contender for probably three or four more years. The Pats may not win next year, but they have a good shot and if they do win that third championship, the terms of this "dynasty" debate will be much different twleve months from now. Because if that happens, the Pats will be able to claim something that has never been accomplished. And what happens if the Pats win two more titles before this "Brady" cycle ends? Where does this team rank if Belicheck and Brady have a ring for each finger? I am not saying this will happen, but it is not inconceivable. And at that point, even the most hardened critics up in Bristol and San Francisco and Dallas and Pittsburgh will have to re-assess their nostaligc veiws.

Tuesday, February 08, 2005

Decision Time for the Pats

Well, I was hoping that I would have a few more days to pen this piece, but the Globe and the Herald beat me to the punch this morning with their previews of the Patriots upcomming offseason. Both, as usual, were thorough (http://patriots.bostonherald.com/patriots/view.bg?articleid=67486) albeit a bit dry and devoid of many predictions. Nonetheless, I am going to take a few minutes to share my views on the pressing player personel issues that the Pats face this off-season and my thoughts on where the Pats should prioritize.

The way I see it, an organization has to be cognizant of both its short-term and long-term goals when it goes into its off-season. And although the Pats do face some short-term issues that need addressing, there is no doubt that the biggest issue of this off-season concerns Tom Brady. Number 12 is signed through the 2006 season so some may think that the organization has some time to address this issue. Nothing could be further from the truth. First of all, the Pats want to take care of this guy. He is the organization and he deserves to get paid. Kraft knows it, Belicheck knows it and Brady knows it. Second of all, despite talk of a hometown discount, Brady is not going to come cheap and the organization needs to get an idea of Tom's out year costs so they can build a long-range plan. Afterall, the team can't start taking care of other contributors like Richard Seymour unitl Brady's numbers are determined.

I had planned to ink a seperate piece on Brady's contract but I will share some thoughts at this juncture. I don't think Brady is going to kill the Pats with Vick or Manning-esque demands, but that doen't mean he will come cheap. It seems he loves being in Boston and I don't see Tom holding out for the final dollar. On the otherhand, there is no way he is going to agree to a Jake Delhomme type contract. I think the final result will fall somewhere between Manning on the high side and Chad Pennington on the low side. That means something in the area of 6 years and 75-80 million dollars with a signing bonus of 25M. The cap numbers will probably be kept pretty low in the early years, hoping that expected cap relief from the new TV contracts after 2006 will cushion the blow of this contract in the out years. Regardless of where the numbers shake out, this is priority number one. It has to be done and preferrably before free-agency begins in early March.

The second big issue of the off-season surrounds Ty Law's future. As everyone knows, Ty has a huge cap number in 05 (12.5) and the Pats proved this year that they could win without number 24. If he is released, the Pats could save almost 10M in cap room. The Pats bit the bullet last year because they were terrified that Samuel and other free agents were not viable repalcements, but this isn't going to happen again. Ty's situation is a bit like that of a former Red Sox shortstop. Like Nomar, Ty turned down a pretty big extension and a good signing bonus ahead of a season where he got hurt and his team won a championship. It would be nice if they could get a couple more years out of Ty, but not at the cost that Ty will surely demand. After all, Law, like Pedro, is all about "respect" and he won't come back for what the Pats are likely to offer. Lets face it, the Pats won with Samuel and Gay and Law's money can be much better spent elsewhere.

As far as unrestricted free agents go, the Pats are probably in better shape then they were a year ago when they faced big calls on Ted Washington, Damian Woody and Bobby Hamilton. Washington and Woody wanted huge contracts and both were jettisoned as a result. This year, the decisions are not as pressing. Left guard Joe Andruzzi is probably the toughest call. Andruzzi has been a warrior but the front office has refused in the past to break the bank over interior lineman. Andruzzi seems content in Boston and says all the right things about wanting to stay, but he is a New Yorker and given the plight of the Giants front line, what will he do if the Giants come calling? The Pats may get lucky on Andruzzi since he plays on an unheralded line and so its unlikely he will get offers like the ones that pro bowler Woody got last year.

The other big unrestricted guys are Dave Patten and Adam Vinaterri. I can't see Patten getting big money elsewhere given his modest stats. He is a useful player but is expendable. Vinaterri will be back - you can mark my word. Belicheck won'g go to war witihout this weapon and thus he will be signed long-term or franchised - a result that is not too onerous for a kicker.

As far as restricted free agents go - there is some trouble on the offensive line. Both left guard Stephen Neal and left tackle Brendan Gorin are restricted and the Pats have some tough calls ahead. Gorin was a replacement for Tom Ashworth and did an admirable job. But do the Pats pay up to keep him or hand the reins back to Tom Ashworth. Neal seems like a more obvious call. I think the Pats do what they need to do to keep Neal in the fold. He is a character guy and Belicheck will keep him around for his mentality. If the Pats sense someone else will come in and bid on Neal, they will make him a qualifying offer that will keep the other team away. He will be a patriot next year and if I had to guess, Gorin will be back playing next to him.

The other big restricted guy is David Givens and this is where I get passionate. Message to Bill: Do what has to be done to bring Givens back. I love this guy. He is always open and he never drops a ball within reach. He is a certifiable tough guy and a great fit for this team. He doesnt have huge numbers so I think the Pats can easily protect him by making him a qualifying offer. Is any team going to give up a first round pick for David Givens? He is not a highlights guy or a stats guy so I think the answer is no. Thus, it is safe to assume that Dave Givens will be coming back for about 1.5 Million. The same cannot be said for Jarvis Green. I am a big fan of Jarvis. He has come up big in several big games, but there will be a bid for his services. The Pats have tons of depth on their front line and I fear that Green is a luxury that the Pats cannot afford. This one will hurt because Green can play and will be productive if given the opportunity.

Those are the big personnel decisions facing the Patriots, but what about the Pats going christmas shopping during free agency and the draft. The Pats are in decent cap shape and losing Law will help, but Brady will hurt, Seymour needs a new contract and there are some other contracts that need to be restructered as well. I don't see the Pats being big players in free agency, but I can see Bill bringing in a smart veteran at middle linebacker. Pfeiffer is a good candidate to retire (along with Fauria) and Teddy Johnson isnt getting any younger. Belicheck doesnt like putting young guys in the middle so the draft is probably not the answer - nor is the Dan Klecko experiment, although Klecko should come back healthy next year. As for the draft, a corner seems logical given the fact that Law is likely gone and Poole will likely retire. Samuel and Gay got the job done this year and will improve with age, but an atheltic corner is likely to be at the top of the draft board. Other priortiies will depend in part on what happens with the restricted free agents. They may need to build some depth on the offensive line, a repalcement for Patten may be needed and I would expect that a linebacker will be selected and groomed for the future.

In sum, the Pats stand in pretty good shape going into this off-season. They do have to take care of Brady and Seymour this Spring and that will limit the club's ability to add many new faces. But at least the organization isnt in a position where major personel defections are likely. All in all, I expect that Pats will go into 05 with just about the same team that won the Suepr Bowl. Hopefully there will be some new youthful faces, but I wouldn't expect too many changes. The core will be back and that alone makes the club a leading contender to repeat.





Monday, February 07, 2005

SUPER PATS

It wasn't pretty. It lacked style. The East German judge gave it terrible marks for artistic impression. But at the end of the night, a win is a win and for the New England Patriots, it means another Super Bowl Championship. And although it was a bit anti-climatic for this Patriots fan, it was still very satisfying, made more so since it had significant historical implications.

The game itself was very sloppy. Donovan McNabb played as if Rush was playing as a nickel back on the other side of the line. Andy Reid coached as if he were competing in a Herman Edwards costume contest. And Bill Belicheck was more conservative then an evangelical Southern governor as he tried to close the game out. There were plenty of three and outs and with all the Super Bowl commercials, it felt as if the game was moving ahead at a glacial pace. In the first half, the game lacked any rhythm. Neither team could really get anything going and when they did, it usually resulted in a turnover. The Pats were committing some stupid penalties to hinder their drives while Donovan was doing his best to keep the game scoreless ahead of McCartney's three song gig at halftime. (By the way, I watched the game at a bar and some freak behind me was actually dancing during Hey Jude.)

I got to admit I was a bit worried when the Eagles went up 7-0 twenty minutes into the game. The Pats had done almost nothing up to that point on offense and I felt that they needed the next score or Bill and company might be in some trouble. So what happens, Brady gets the ball and drives the Pats right down the field where he proceeds to fumble. For a second, I thought Drew Bledsoe was taking snaps. Luckily, the defense had a nice stand the Brady got the ball back with great field position. From there, the Pats straightend things out and it was 7-7 with a couple minutes to go. But then disaster struck.

If you had asked me before the game for a player that the Pats simply could not afford to lose - other then Tom Brady - I may have coughed up Eugene Wilson. Aside form being a terrific player, Wilson is one guy on the team who simply does not have a credible replacement. With him out, my mind wandered back to Super Bowl 38 where Jake Delhomme picked apart the Pats depleted secondary. Wilson left that game with a torn groin and from that point on it was game on for the Panthers. At 8:30 last night, I had a terrible feeling that history was going to repeat itself. Luckily, Andy Reid had his first stroke of the night when play resumed as he was content to go into halftime tied instead of pressing ahead for a late a score.

In the second half, Brady and company finally got things going. Brady hit Branch for a huge third down conversion and that eventually led to seven points, courtesy of Mike Vrabel. After Philly tied things up, the Pats got the running game going and that led to a 21-14 lead with about 13 minutes to go. A three and out series ensued and at that point, I thought the game was in the bag. But Belicheck got a bit conservative in the red zone and instead of going for the jugular, he settled for going up 10. I can understand he had some confidence in his defense considering that they had been playing well in the second half, but his secondary was bending and it seemed to me that he should have taken a shot at the end zone on third down rather then settling for a Corey Dillon run up the middle from the five. So at that point, the Pats are up 24-14 and all was well in Beantown.

Things got better moments later when Teddy Bruschi seemed to have secured a game ending pick. Up ten with seven minutes to go and with the ball. The game was over right? Wrong! Two Dillon runs and an incomplete pass and the Eagles were back in business. But a funny thing then happened - Reid suffered his second stroke of the night. The Eagles took the ball and moved as if they were down a point with five minutes to go, when in fact, they were down two scores. It really seemed as if Reid misread the scoreboard. His team moved with no urgency whatsoever. McNabb was out for a walk in the park while his center was fuming and pressing his teammates to hurry up. These protestations were in vain. It seemed as if the Eagles had conceded the game. After 12 plays, McNabb did connect on a beautiful pass over Dexter Reid and the game was interesting once again, but there were now less then two minutes to play. Had they scored a minute earlier, the game may have had a different ending. By the way, I thought Belicheck was ready to fire Cornell after that scoring play. How he could leave Dexter Reid one on one with a speed guy is beyond me and Mr. Belicheck seemed to agree.

So the Pats recover the onside kick and what does Belicheck do. He runs a couple times to burn up Philly's remaining time outs. And then on third down, he runs again. This chews up some clock, but why not try to pick up a game winning first down at that point? I thought this was very out of character for Belicheck. He is usually a hammer guy and what I saw last night was nothing of the sort. Luckily, Josh Miller hit a great punt and the game was basically over.

The Pats won for many of the resons that I mentioned in my preview. Kearse and the eagles vaunted pass rush was non-existent. They got some pressure on Brady with some blitzes, but Dillon and Faulk did a good job blocking and Brady, as a result, had pretty good protection. Dillon didn't have the monster day that I predicted, but he and Faulk were able to get some things done, esepcially on the second half drive that put the Pats up 21-14. The defense was solid as well, especially considering Wilson's injury. The Pats defense took Westbrook out of the game and I thought McNabb's passing yardage was a bit misleading. As is their style, the Pats came up with some big plays and McNabb ended up being more of a hindrance then hero. Seymour and the linebackers were solid once again and the secondary played well at times although after Wilson got hurt, the young guys seemed to get a bit more conservative. Nonetheless, they only gave up a couple big plays and that is about all you can expect from a secondary comprised of three guys who didn't start on opening day. As for Brady, he stepped up when plays had to be made - there is simply no one better at key moments then number twelve.


So it wasn't pretty, but a win is a win and those are always nice when they come in the Super Bowl. And so there it is - the Pats have won three championships in four years. It is a helluva an accomplishment given the leagues effort to level the playing field. And even in victory last night, the core of this team stayed on message. There was no gloating. There was no taunting. It was all class. And while last night lacked some of the excitement of Super Bowls past, it was still very satisfying. The culmination of another special season. Perhaps this team has finally earned some of the respect that it so rightly deserves. After all, the Pats became only the second team in history to win three super bowls in four years, matching the Dallas Cowboys. The Pats have now earned the right to be considered among the greatest of all time. With a win next year, they will take the top spot!












Sunday, February 06, 2005

Playing for Respect

In the euphoric hours after the AFC Championship, I predicted that the Super Bowl would end up being a Super Snore. After witnessing what the Patriots had just done to the second and third best teams in the NFL, I arrogantly assumed that the Super Bowl would be a three touchdown game. The Eagles, afterall, were a modest team from a marginal conference and there was no way they were going down to Jacksonville and competing against a Pats team that was playing for history. How can this game have opened at six and half points, I thought. But after two weeks of reflection, I have come to the conclusion that we will see a competitve game, albeit one that is won by the defending Super Bowl champions.

A key component to my thesis is my belief that the Eagles are far from special. If they win the Super Bowl, Philadelphia will be the first team in NFL history - since the advent of the 16 game schedule - to have won a championship with only three quality wins during the regular season. (A quality win is defined as a win that comes against a team with a season ending winning record.) This team is simply not battle tested. They beat a team in the divisional round that was not a playoff team and the team they knocked off in the NFC championship was not ready for prime time. This is quite simply a untested team. Its pretty hard to know what the Eagles are given the level of their competition. I am not suggesting that the Eagles are ordinary. Instead, I am just arguing that it is very hard to determine whether this is a special team. Their record is just too spotty and incomplete. And given the fact that they are up against a team with a terrific track record in big games, I find it very difficult to predict an Eagles victory.

Now to specifics. Why will New England prevail on Sunday night? First of all, I think the Pats defense will keep Donovan McNabb in check. McNabb has a bit of a checkered past. Like Peyton Manning, he is a bit of a bully. Against weak teams, He has put up some huge numbers. But a cursory review of his game logs over the past three yeas reveals a spotty record. This is a guy who will throw picks in big games. This is a guy whose completion percentage will fall against good defenses. I like McNabb, but I don't fear him. Whether or not Terrell Owens plays, I don't think McNabb has the weapons available to put up a big number on the Pats defenese. I suspect that the Pats goal will be to take Brian Westbrook out of the game and force McNabb to beat them. The Pats will blitz on occasion, but I think they could cause more damage by sitting back. As they did with Manning, the Pats will take away everything downfield and make McNabb play a patient game. I don't think he is up to the challenge. I think he will grow impatient and it will result in a couple of interceptions. McNabb needs a huge day for the Eagles to win and I just don't think he will respond. At the end of the day, I see McNabbs stats reading somethign like the following: 18-30 for 212 yards, one TD and two picks. he won't be a goat but he will not have done enough to win the game.

Over the past two weeks, I have heard plenty of Philly fans pontificate that the eagles will manhandle the Pats offensive line and shut down this offense. Didn't we hear this argument last year from Panther supporters. On that occasion, Julius Peppers and Kris Jenkins were going to abuse a line that was missing Damian Woody. Well, it didnt happen. Carolina didn't register a sack in Super Bowl 38 and Brady had all day to throw the ball. I don't think that feat will be repeated, but I do think offensive line coach Jeff Davidson will come up with a game plan that will give Tom Brady the time he needs to pick apart an overated Eagles secondary. Overated? Phily fans will quickly chime in that three eagles are headed to Hawaii for the Pro Bowl. I don't know if these fans recognize what the pro bowl has become becasue it certainly is not a talent assesment. If you are telling me that Lito Shepperd is going to stick with Deion Branch, you haven't watched many pats games or eagles games. This game will hinge on the Eagles getting to Brady because I simply don't think this secondary can cover the Pats underated receiving corps all evening. If they get to Brady, as Miami did in December, things could get interesting. But I think the Pats will give the Eagles a healthy doese of Corey Dillon and that will slow down their pass rush. If the Eagles are too bent on getting to Brady, Dillon could make them pay in a big way. As such, I think Brady will have decent pass protection and that is all he needs to be succesful. At the end of the day, I see Brady's line reading as follows: 18-27, 240 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.

Aside from the X's and O's, I think one of the most important factors in tonight's game is the motivation of the players suiting up for New England. Quite simply, this is a team that feels it does not get enough respect and as a result, the Pats play angry. This is a team that is playing for a place in history. This should not be minimized. While the players and coaching staff have largely sidestepped most of the dynasty discussion this week, I believe it is important to this team that it finally get some respect. This has fueled the team in recent weeks - just ask the Colts - and I think it will be a big factor in tonight's game. The Pats are a highly motivated team that has had enough of the sleights from the Bristol idiots. With a third Super Bowl, even the Pats most vocal doubters will have trouble ignoring this team's accomplishments.

So what does this add up to? I see the Pats holding the Eagles to three scores, only one of which is a TD. The Pats "bend but don't break defense" will frustrate the Eagles a couple times in the red zone and that will be a big story to this game. As a result, I will put the Eagles number at 13. The Pats on the other hand will run the ball with some success and this will open things up for Brady. The Pats will lead by a touchdown midway through the fourth quarter but will then cement their place in history with a six minute - twelve play drive - that culminates in a late TD. The final score will be 27-13 and the Pats will have secured their thrid title in four years. It might not represent a dynsasty, but no can say that it is not a herculian accomplishment. I will save that discussion for another day.