Playing for Respect

In the euphoric hours after the AFC Championship, I predicted that the Super Bowl would end up being a Super Snore. After witnessing what the Patriots had just done to the second and third best teams in the NFL, I arrogantly assumed that the Super Bowl would be a three touchdown game. The Eagles, afterall, were a modest team from a marginal conference and there was no way they were going down to Jacksonville and competing against a Pats team that was playing for history. How can this game have opened at six and half points, I thought. But after two weeks of reflection, I have come to the conclusion that we will see a competitve game, albeit one that is won by the defending Super Bowl champions.

A key component to my thesis is my belief that the Eagles are far from special. If they win the Super Bowl, Philadelphia will be the first team in NFL history - since the advent of the 16 game schedule - to have won a championship with only three quality wins during the regular season. (A quality win is defined as a win that comes against a team with a season ending winning record.) This team is simply not battle tested. They beat a team in the divisional round that was not a playoff team and the team they knocked off in the NFC championship was not ready for prime time. This is quite simply a untested team. Its pretty hard to know what the Eagles are given the level of their competition. I am not suggesting that the Eagles are ordinary. Instead, I am just arguing that it is very hard to determine whether this is a special team. Their record is just too spotty and incomplete. And given the fact that they are up against a team with a terrific track record in big games, I find it very difficult to predict an Eagles victory.

Now to specifics. Why will New England prevail on Sunday night? First of all, I think the Pats defense will keep Donovan McNabb in check. McNabb has a bit of a checkered past. Like Peyton Manning, he is a bit of a bully. Against weak teams, He has put up some huge numbers. But a cursory review of his game logs over the past three yeas reveals a spotty record. This is a guy who will throw picks in big games. This is a guy whose completion percentage will fall against good defenses. I like McNabb, but I don't fear him. Whether or not Terrell Owens plays, I don't think McNabb has the weapons available to put up a big number on the Pats defenese. I suspect that the Pats goal will be to take Brian Westbrook out of the game and force McNabb to beat them. The Pats will blitz on occasion, but I think they could cause more damage by sitting back. As they did with Manning, the Pats will take away everything downfield and make McNabb play a patient game. I don't think he is up to the challenge. I think he will grow impatient and it will result in a couple of interceptions. McNabb needs a huge day for the Eagles to win and I just don't think he will respond. At the end of the day, I see McNabbs stats reading somethign like the following: 18-30 for 212 yards, one TD and two picks. he won't be a goat but he will not have done enough to win the game.

Over the past two weeks, I have heard plenty of Philly fans pontificate that the eagles will manhandle the Pats offensive line and shut down this offense. Didn't we hear this argument last year from Panther supporters. On that occasion, Julius Peppers and Kris Jenkins were going to abuse a line that was missing Damian Woody. Well, it didnt happen. Carolina didn't register a sack in Super Bowl 38 and Brady had all day to throw the ball. I don't think that feat will be repeated, but I do think offensive line coach Jeff Davidson will come up with a game plan that will give Tom Brady the time he needs to pick apart an overated Eagles secondary. Overated? Phily fans will quickly chime in that three eagles are headed to Hawaii for the Pro Bowl. I don't know if these fans recognize what the pro bowl has become becasue it certainly is not a talent assesment. If you are telling me that Lito Shepperd is going to stick with Deion Branch, you haven't watched many pats games or eagles games. This game will hinge on the Eagles getting to Brady because I simply don't think this secondary can cover the Pats underated receiving corps all evening. If they get to Brady, as Miami did in December, things could get interesting. But I think the Pats will give the Eagles a healthy doese of Corey Dillon and that will slow down their pass rush. If the Eagles are too bent on getting to Brady, Dillon could make them pay in a big way. As such, I think Brady will have decent pass protection and that is all he needs to be succesful. At the end of the day, I see Brady's line reading as follows: 18-27, 240 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.

Aside from the X's and O's, I think one of the most important factors in tonight's game is the motivation of the players suiting up for New England. Quite simply, this is a team that feels it does not get enough respect and as a result, the Pats play angry. This is a team that is playing for a place in history. This should not be minimized. While the players and coaching staff have largely sidestepped most of the dynasty discussion this week, I believe it is important to this team that it finally get some respect. This has fueled the team in recent weeks - just ask the Colts - and I think it will be a big factor in tonight's game. The Pats are a highly motivated team that has had enough of the sleights from the Bristol idiots. With a third Super Bowl, even the Pats most vocal doubters will have trouble ignoring this team's accomplishments.

So what does this add up to? I see the Pats holding the Eagles to three scores, only one of which is a TD. The Pats "bend but don't break defense" will frustrate the Eagles a couple times in the red zone and that will be a big story to this game. As a result, I will put the Eagles number at 13. The Pats on the other hand will run the ball with some success and this will open things up for Brady. The Pats will lead by a touchdown midway through the fourth quarter but will then cement their place in history with a six minute - twelve play drive - that culminates in a late TD. The final score will be 27-13 and the Pats will have secured their thrid title in four years. It might not represent a dynsasty, but no can say that it is not a herculian accomplishment. I will save that discussion for another day.