Decision Time for the Pats

Well, I was hoping that I would have a few more days to pen this piece, but the Globe and the Herald beat me to the punch this morning with their previews of the Patriots upcomming offseason. Both, as usual, were thorough (http://patriots.bostonherald.com/patriots/view.bg?articleid=67486) albeit a bit dry and devoid of many predictions. Nonetheless, I am going to take a few minutes to share my views on the pressing player personel issues that the Pats face this off-season and my thoughts on where the Pats should prioritize.

The way I see it, an organization has to be cognizant of both its short-term and long-term goals when it goes into its off-season. And although the Pats do face some short-term issues that need addressing, there is no doubt that the biggest issue of this off-season concerns Tom Brady. Number 12 is signed through the 2006 season so some may think that the organization has some time to address this issue. Nothing could be further from the truth. First of all, the Pats want to take care of this guy. He is the organization and he deserves to get paid. Kraft knows it, Belicheck knows it and Brady knows it. Second of all, despite talk of a hometown discount, Brady is not going to come cheap and the organization needs to get an idea of Tom's out year costs so they can build a long-range plan. Afterall, the team can't start taking care of other contributors like Richard Seymour unitl Brady's numbers are determined.

I had planned to ink a seperate piece on Brady's contract but I will share some thoughts at this juncture. I don't think Brady is going to kill the Pats with Vick or Manning-esque demands, but that doen't mean he will come cheap. It seems he loves being in Boston and I don't see Tom holding out for the final dollar. On the otherhand, there is no way he is going to agree to a Jake Delhomme type contract. I think the final result will fall somewhere between Manning on the high side and Chad Pennington on the low side. That means something in the area of 6 years and 75-80 million dollars with a signing bonus of 25M. The cap numbers will probably be kept pretty low in the early years, hoping that expected cap relief from the new TV contracts after 2006 will cushion the blow of this contract in the out years. Regardless of where the numbers shake out, this is priority number one. It has to be done and preferrably before free-agency begins in early March.

The second big issue of the off-season surrounds Ty Law's future. As everyone knows, Ty has a huge cap number in 05 (12.5) and the Pats proved this year that they could win without number 24. If he is released, the Pats could save almost 10M in cap room. The Pats bit the bullet last year because they were terrified that Samuel and other free agents were not viable repalcements, but this isn't going to happen again. Ty's situation is a bit like that of a former Red Sox shortstop. Like Nomar, Ty turned down a pretty big extension and a good signing bonus ahead of a season where he got hurt and his team won a championship. It would be nice if they could get a couple more years out of Ty, but not at the cost that Ty will surely demand. After all, Law, like Pedro, is all about "respect" and he won't come back for what the Pats are likely to offer. Lets face it, the Pats won with Samuel and Gay and Law's money can be much better spent elsewhere.

As far as unrestricted free agents go, the Pats are probably in better shape then they were a year ago when they faced big calls on Ted Washington, Damian Woody and Bobby Hamilton. Washington and Woody wanted huge contracts and both were jettisoned as a result. This year, the decisions are not as pressing. Left guard Joe Andruzzi is probably the toughest call. Andruzzi has been a warrior but the front office has refused in the past to break the bank over interior lineman. Andruzzi seems content in Boston and says all the right things about wanting to stay, but he is a New Yorker and given the plight of the Giants front line, what will he do if the Giants come calling? The Pats may get lucky on Andruzzi since he plays on an unheralded line and so its unlikely he will get offers like the ones that pro bowler Woody got last year.

The other big unrestricted guys are Dave Patten and Adam Vinaterri. I can't see Patten getting big money elsewhere given his modest stats. He is a useful player but is expendable. Vinaterri will be back - you can mark my word. Belicheck won'g go to war witihout this weapon and thus he will be signed long-term or franchised - a result that is not too onerous for a kicker.

As far as restricted free agents go - there is some trouble on the offensive line. Both left guard Stephen Neal and left tackle Brendan Gorin are restricted and the Pats have some tough calls ahead. Gorin was a replacement for Tom Ashworth and did an admirable job. But do the Pats pay up to keep him or hand the reins back to Tom Ashworth. Neal seems like a more obvious call. I think the Pats do what they need to do to keep Neal in the fold. He is a character guy and Belicheck will keep him around for his mentality. If the Pats sense someone else will come in and bid on Neal, they will make him a qualifying offer that will keep the other team away. He will be a patriot next year and if I had to guess, Gorin will be back playing next to him.

The other big restricted guy is David Givens and this is where I get passionate. Message to Bill: Do what has to be done to bring Givens back. I love this guy. He is always open and he never drops a ball within reach. He is a certifiable tough guy and a great fit for this team. He doesnt have huge numbers so I think the Pats can easily protect him by making him a qualifying offer. Is any team going to give up a first round pick for David Givens? He is not a highlights guy or a stats guy so I think the answer is no. Thus, it is safe to assume that Dave Givens will be coming back for about 1.5 Million. The same cannot be said for Jarvis Green. I am a big fan of Jarvis. He has come up big in several big games, but there will be a bid for his services. The Pats have tons of depth on their front line and I fear that Green is a luxury that the Pats cannot afford. This one will hurt because Green can play and will be productive if given the opportunity.

Those are the big personnel decisions facing the Patriots, but what about the Pats going christmas shopping during free agency and the draft. The Pats are in decent cap shape and losing Law will help, but Brady will hurt, Seymour needs a new contract and there are some other contracts that need to be restructered as well. I don't see the Pats being big players in free agency, but I can see Bill bringing in a smart veteran at middle linebacker. Pfeiffer is a good candidate to retire (along with Fauria) and Teddy Johnson isnt getting any younger. Belicheck doesnt like putting young guys in the middle so the draft is probably not the answer - nor is the Dan Klecko experiment, although Klecko should come back healthy next year. As for the draft, a corner seems logical given the fact that Law is likely gone and Poole will likely retire. Samuel and Gay got the job done this year and will improve with age, but an atheltic corner is likely to be at the top of the draft board. Other priortiies will depend in part on what happens with the restricted free agents. They may need to build some depth on the offensive line, a repalcement for Patten may be needed and I would expect that a linebacker will be selected and groomed for the future.

In sum, the Pats stand in pretty good shape going into this off-season. They do have to take care of Brady and Seymour this Spring and that will limit the club's ability to add many new faces. But at least the organization isnt in a position where major personel defections are likely. All in all, I expect that Pats will go into 05 with just about the same team that won the Suepr Bowl. Hopefully there will be some new youthful faces, but I wouldn't expect too many changes. The core will be back and that alone makes the club a leading contender to repeat.